Centennial-Scale Electricity Infrastructure Planning – Detailed Explanation With Case Laws

1. Meaning

Centennial-scale electricity infrastructure planning means planning electricity infrastructure over an extremely long period, potentially 50 to 100 years or more. It considers how electricity generation, transmission, distribution, storage and demand may develop across several generations.

Traditional electricity planning may focus on 10–30 years. Centennial planning goes further and asks:

What infrastructure will society need over generations?

Which assets should be built today for long-term use?

How will climate change affect electricity infrastructure?

How can future technologies be accommodated?

How should transmission corridors and land be protected?

Who should pay for infrastructure that benefits future generations?

It is therefore not simply an engineering exercise. It is also a question of energy law, environmental law, public finance, land-use planning and intergenerational justice.

2. Why Long-Term Planning Is Necessary

Electricity infrastructure has a very long physical life. Transmission lines, substations, dams, nuclear facilities and large generating stations can operate for several decades.

A decision made today can therefore determine the structure of the electricity system for future generations.

For example:

Transmission corridor selected today → grid expansion over decades → renewable generation connected later → storage integrated → electricity system continues operating for future generations.

Centennial planning therefore requires flexibility rather than assuming that current technology will remain dominant forever.

3. South African Legal Framework

The Electricity Regulation Act 4 of 2006 (ERA) establishes the national regulatory framework for the electricity supply industry. Its objectives include the efficient, effective, sustainable and orderly development and operation of electricity supply infrastructure. The Act also gives NERSA important licensing and regulatory responsibilities. (Saflii)

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is particularly important because it provides the government's policy framework for electricity-generation planning.

Section 34 of the ERA allows the Minister, in consultation with NERSA, to determine that additional generation capacity is required and to determine energy sources and procurement arrangements. The Earthlife Africa litigation explains the relationship between the IRP, generation planning and section 34 determinations. (Saflii)

Centennial planning can therefore build upon the IRP while recognising that an IRP normally has a much shorter planning horizon and must be periodically updated.

4. Climate Change and Long-Term Planning

Climate change is one of the strongest reasons for adopting very long-term electricity planning.

A power station or transmission corridor may remain operational for decades. If climate risks are ignored during planning, infrastructure may become unsuitable or expensive to adapt later.

In Earthlife Africa Johannesburg v Minister of Environmental Affairs, the court dealt with the proposed Thabametsi coal-fired power station and held that climate-change impacts were relevant to environmental authorisation. The court emphasised that decision-makers must consider relevant environmental factors before authorising major electricity infrastructure. (Saflii)

The principle is highly relevant to centennial planning: long-lived infrastructure must be assessed against long-term climate consequences rather than only present-day conditions.

5. Intergenerational Equity

Centennial planning introduces the principle of intergenerational equity.

Present decision-makers may construct infrastructure whose costs and environmental consequences will continue long after the decision-makers have left office.

The legal question becomes:

How can present electricity needs be satisfied without unfairly limiting the choices available to future generations?

This requires planners to consider:

long-term environmental effects;

stranded-asset risks;

future technology;

public debt;

resource availability;

climate resilience; and

future electricity demand.

South Africa's constitutional environmental framework, particularly section 24 of the Constitution, provides an important basis for considering these long-term issues.

6. Infrastructure Flexibility

Centennial planning should not mean predicting exactly what the electricity system will look like in 100 years.

Instead, it should create flexible infrastructure pathways.

For example, transmission corridors can be protected today even if the lines themselves are constructed later. Grid designs can provide for future renewable generation, battery storage, hydrogen production, distributed generation and new demand.

This approach reduces the danger of technological lock-in.

7. Eskom and Essential Electricity Services

The courts have repeatedly recognised the importance of electricity infrastructure to communities.

In Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd v Vaal River Development Association, the Constitutional Court dealt with restrictions on bulk electricity supply to municipalities. The case demonstrated how electricity interruptions can affect water supply, sewage systems, hospitals, businesses and other essential services. (SAFLII)

The earlier Supreme Court of Appeal proceedings also recorded the significant consequences of electricity disruptions for water-treatment facilities and sewage systems. (Saflii)

For centennial planning, this means that planners should not measure infrastructure only by megawatts generated. They must also consider system resilience and the dependence of other essential services on electricity.

8. Environmental Planning Cannot Be Replaced by Energy Planning

An important legal principle is that approval of an electricity plan does not necessarily eliminate the need for project-specific environmental assessment.

In South Durban Community Environmental Alliance v Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (2025), the Supreme Court of Appeal reaffirmed that NEMA's environmental principles apply to environmental decision-making and noted that macro-level planning, such as the IRP, does not determine the environmental impacts of a particular project. (Saflii)

This is extremely important for centennial planning.

A long-term electricity plan may identify a need for generation or transmission capacity, but individual projects must still satisfy applicable environmental requirements.

9. Governance and Periodic Review

A century-long plan cannot be a fixed legal document.

A better model is:

Long-term vision → periodic review → updated scientific information → revised infrastructure pathway → new investment decisions.

Planning legislation should therefore require periodic review of:

electricity demand;

climate projections;

technology;

energy prices;

infrastructure condition;

environmental risks;

population changes; and

energy-storage requirements.

This makes the system adaptive rather than rigid.

10. Conclusion

Centennial-Scale Electricity Infrastructure Planning involves preparing the electricity system for several generations while maintaining flexibility to respond to technological, economic, environmental and social change.

Its principal legal principles are:

long-term security → climate resilience → intergenerational equity → flexible infrastructure → environmental assessment → public accountability → periodic review.

The Electricity Regulation Act, IRP framework and NERSA's regulatory role provide important foundations in South Africa. The cases Eskom v Vaal River Development Association, Earthlife Africa, and South Durban Community Environmental Alliance demonstrate important principles concerning electricity reliability, climate considerations and the relationship between strategic energy planning and project-specific environmental assessment. (SAFLII)

Ultimately, centennial electricity planning should not attempt to predict the exact electricity system of the next century. Its legal objective should instead be to preserve future choices, protect essential infrastructure, avoid irreversible environmental harm, and create an electricity network capable of adapting to generations of technological and climate change.